Anthropogenic climate and land-use change drive short-and long-term biodiversity shifts across taxa
Author(s): Montràs-Janer, T., Suggitt, A.J., Fox, R., Jönsson, M., Martay, B., Roy, D.B., Walker, K.J. & Auffret, A.G.
Published: February 2024
Journal: Nature Ecology & Evolution
Digital Identifier No. (DOI): 10.1038/s41559-024-02326-7
This collaborative research involving BTO attempted to start understanding how habitat change and climate change interact. The study examined changes in over 1,000 bird, butterfly, moth and plant distributions across the UK over the past 75 years, combined with climate and land-use data, to identify whether long-term (50+ years) and short-term (20 years) community changes, such as to species richness and diversity, were linked to changes in land-use, climate change and the interaction between them. They research also considered whether community changes were linked to the land-use or climate seen in the 1930s.
In the short- and long-term across all UK 10-km squares, species richness increased for birds, butterflies and plants. However, warm-adapted species such as Nuthatch generally became more prevalent relative to cold-adapted species (e.g. Kestrel) and species assemblages became more homogenous across the UK, decreasing the overall diversity. The long-term changes were most strongly linked to land-use change. Warming temperatures and wetter conditions also contributed to the long-term trends. Short-term community changes were more associated with baseline conditions than the changes to these conditions, which could suggest a time-lag in observed community changes.
The interactions between climate and land-use change were relatively minor. Such interactions had the biggest impact on long-term community changes, with arable habitats enhancing the link between temperature and bird community change, while forest habitats reduced the probable impact of temperature. In the short-term, the link between rising temperatures and the decline of cold-adapted birds was strongest on farmland and in urban habitats compared to in woodland.
One of the key findings of this paper was the protective effect of semi-natural grasslands, as these habitats were where community changes were lowest. This indicates the importance of these habitats for maintaining diversity.
This project has shown the diversity in species’ responses to drivers of change, highlighting the importance of biological recording and the inclusion of species-level information when devising plans to maintain biodiversity. It also suggests that while accounting for interactions between land-use change and climate change may be less important than predicted, examining how the impacts of climate change may vary on different habitats is an important line of future research to make the best decisions for conservation.
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