If climate change is to result in significant shifts in the distribution and abundance of species, then it may require long-term planning by conservation organisations in order to adapt. This may involve increasing the connectivity of habitats in order for species to track changes in their climate, increasing the size of protected areas to increase the resilience of those populations to climate change, or managing sites to reduce negative climate change effects. There is much that current research can do now to inform this process (Pearce-Higgins et al. 2011). Recent BTO-led work, funded through CCI, has built on this knowledge in order to develop guidance to inform climate change adaptation for conservationists around the world.
Other BTO-led work takes a more empirical approach to inform adaptation. Using similar models to those outlined previously, we are currently modelling the likely effects of climate change on the size of populations supported by protected areas that form the Special Protection Area (SPA) network across Europe (the CHAINSPAN project). For many coastal wetland species, there is good evidence that their distributions are shifting in response to climate change (Austin & Rehfisch 2005, Maclean et al. 2008) which may have implications for protected areas. We therefore model the extent to which such shifts are likely to affect a wider suite of species, in order to assess the extent to which any future shifts in the distribution of species in response to climate change may affect the proportion of a species population supported by the SPA network. Together, with RSPB, these results are then used to assess the extent to which site management may also be required to reduce these effects. Models such as these may also be used to identify species priorities for conservation in a changing climate.
Developing a framework to inform climate change adaptation for global biodiversity
There is considerable debate about how best to manage climate change impacts through adaptation. Through a workshop. we examined the mechanisms by which climate change may impact upon species and considered potential adaptation management options appropriate for each.
The workshop was attended by 23 academics and generated much interesting debate. The mechanisms identified on day one have been input to the CCI-collaborative fund project ‘Mechanisms Underpinning Climate Change Impacts on Global Biodiversity’. Day two focused on identifying adaptation options in the face of climate change.
A policy-focused summary based on these discussions is available (PDF, 1.14 MB).
This was a collaborative project led by BTO but also involving BirdLife International, Cambridge University, FFI, IUCN. RSPB, TRAFFIC and UNEP-WCMC. This project was funded by the CCI Strategic Initiative Workshop Fund.
Chainspan – testing the effectiveness of Protected Area networks
Climate change is expected to result in significant shifts in the distribution of species through time, and there is increasing evidence that these shifts are already occurring. This has led some to question the potential long-term effectiveness of static Protected Areas, as species for which a particular site is designated may no-longer occur there in the future.
One of the Protected Area networks which has been proven to have successfully improved the conservation status of the species for which it was created is the Special Protection Area (SPA) network, established under the EU Birds Directive. SPAs and Special Areas of Conservation together form the Natura2000 network, which recent analysis suggests is vulnerable to future climate change. In response to this concern, BTO scientists have modelled the impacts of future climate change on the abundance of Annex I and migratory bird species protected by SPAs within the UK.
Our results suggest that the most vulnerable species groups to climate change are likely to be northern breeding species. Many wintering waterbirds were projected to increase in abundance in the UK as a result of milder winters, although the potential for such patterns to be realised may be limited by ecological changes on the breeding grounds.
Diving wintering waterfowl were more likely to decline in abundance, potentially as milder winters enable them to winter in Scandinavia and central Europe. Southerly distributed heathland species were projected to benefit from climate change. Significant latitudinal shifts in species composition were projected, which means that site managers can consider species present on more southerly sites to identify potential future changes in bird communities that may occur.
Even in a changing climate, large sites which currently support internationally important bird populations will continue to do so in the future. The continued protection of the SPA network is therefore required in the face of climate change. Adaptation should also involve improved SPA management, as this should increase the resilience of sites to climate change, as well as boosting populations now. Such management should balance the needs of species currently supported by an SPA and those which may colonise in response to climate change.
Read the policy summary (PDF, 228 KB)
CHAINSPAN was funded by Defra with the support of the Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Natural England, Countryside Council for Wales and Scottish Natural Heritage. The work was undertaken by the BTO and RSPB, with additional advice from the University of York and Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, Paris.